This is NPR’s TED Radio Hour. This is Manush Zomoroddi.

ZOMORODI: Now let anyone predict the future, they are likely to decline.

Anthony Fauci: You know, I won't speculate on this. I want to see what happens now.

Anthony Mason: No one can accurately predict how 2021 will unfold.

ELON MUSK: Well, I think this is one of the things that is difficult to predict.

FAUCI: We just can't predict. we do not know.

ZOMORODI: For many of us, the world feels unstable and unstable. Unless you are Amy Weber, trying to guess what will happen next seems futile.

Amy Weber: This is Amy Weber. I am the CEO of the Institute of Today's Future and a professor of strategic vision at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

ZOMORODI: And, Amy, is it fair to say that you are a futurist?

Weber: I am. I am a quantitative futurist.

ZOMORODI: The coolest post, but can you explain what a quantitative futurist is? Have you seen, for example—I don’t know—the spreadsheet in your crystal ball?

Weber: So futurists don't make predictions. Instead, we collect signal data. We model this data, look for patterns and try to predict many possible futures.

ZOMORODI: Large companies and governments use Amy's forecasts to prepare for various situations, including epidemics.

Weber: The type of work we do leads to very big bets, you know, sometimes the CEO and his team have to invest billions or billions of dollars. We want to make sure they are prepared.

ZOMORODI: But Amy said that her research on scientific innovation and technological trends, well, more ordinary people also need to understand them.

Weber: Manush, like you, I am an ordinary person. and...

Weber: ...This is the dilemma of ordinary people. The problem is that we are going through this huge transformation. Each of us living today will have to start making some very difficult choices that affect how we spend our time, what we want our children to do, and who we vote for. You know, these will be complicated decisions. The good news is that on the horizon, you know that there are many opportunities for personal growth and economic growth. But this opportunity comes with some serious related risks.

ZOMORODI: So in the show today, Amy Webb introduced us to four types of innovations and explained how these inventions and ideas can subvert the future of travel, health, and our value in the world. Before talking about her memoirs and TED talks, Amy has actually been on the show-both are called "data, a love story"-about how she invaded an online dating platform. But today, she came back to give us a glimpse of the future.

Zomoroddi: Okay. So Amy, you have generously agreed to return to the show. But we have to do something completely different. You will guide us through selected TED talks to understand some major technology trends. But they are very specific innovations. You will help us put these innovations in the background, break the hype that may stem from real changes in them, and help us understand the impact they may have on the Internet and the way we live and work. There is a lot to say.

ZOMORODI: I want to start with a category that really affects all of us, traffic. We can't teleport yet, Amy, but we still need to move our body from point A to point B. The first speaker thinks that we can do this in a way called Hyperloop. Josh Giegel is the CEO and co-founder of Virgin Hyperloop. His 2021 speech is titled "The Vision Behind Ultra-High Speed, Magnetic Levitation, and Hyperloop". If you have never heard of Hyperloop-I have not heard of it-this is his description.

JOSH GIEGEL: So Hyperloop is a kind of transportation system. It has a vehicle called a pod in a tube the same size as a subway tunnel. From there we suck most but not all of the air-equivalent to about 200,000 feet above sea level. . This allows us to glide at the speed of an airline without turbulence, and the energy consumption is only a small part of an airplane-exactly one-tenth of an airplane. This is important because as humans, we have an innate need for speed. But this obsession with speed and size is destroying the planets around us. In fact, in the United States, the transportation industry is the single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. The Hyperloop system can begin to change this trend by shortening short-distance travel and commuting from a few hours to a few minutes before the end of the century.

Zomoroddi: Okay. This sounds amazing. I was floating and I was attracted by a more efficient subway tunnel, in essence, but it was as fast as an airplane, and consumed only one-tenth of the energy used by air travel. Amy, tell us more about how it works.

Weber: Yes. Row. So do you remember the pneumatic tube of the bank? You put the money in that little jar. Then it was sucked up and sent to the cashier inside the building. So this is not exactly how the Hyperloop works. But, you know, it at least gives you a visual effect.

Weber: So imagine in a very comfortable cabin, a closed container, which can travel very, very fast. So, if you have ever been to a bank’s drive-through service, and have seen what that pipeline looks like and how quickly things are developing, that’s the same thing. So we are talking about a pod hovering inside a vacuum tube. And using electric propulsion, it can gradually accelerate, speed up, and then really take off. And the pod can slide along the track using magnetic levitation, which has actually been used in some train systems, but in different ways around the world-for example, the maglev trains in Japan and China.

ZOMORODI: So it's a bit like a subway? For example, will there be stops along the way? What kind of travel or commuting is Hyperloop best suited for?

Weber: Well, you know, many of these plans stipulate speeds of 700 to 800 miles per hour.

Weber: So it's fast. So when you speed up one of these tasks, you know that you don’t want to stop every few blocks. So, on the contrary, this is more like a round trip between San Francisco and Los Angeles, which usually takes 12 hours on the road, but can be completed in an hour.

ZOMORODI: It is very interesting to me, for example, what you describe sounds very futuristic. But Josh Giger said that the idea of ​​a hyperloop has actually been around for some time.

GIEGEL: 118 years ago, before the first flight of the Wright brothers, the idea of ​​human flight was unimaginable. Even this is crazy. Today, however, we boarded an airplane 30,000 feet above the ground without thinking about anything.

One year after the Wright brothers’ historic first flight, another inventor, an American physicist named Robert Goddard, proposed a new means of transportation—the train. He envisioned a high-speed public transportation system where people can drive on the ground with almost no air resistance in the pipes. Today, these earliest renderings are what we call the super high-speed rail.

ZOMORODI: (Laughter) vactrain. Okay, so we have been thinking about pulling our bodies onto the earth for decades. But I have to say, Amy, the latest mode of transportation I have recently taken is an electric scooter. Are we a bit stagnant when it comes to innovative transportation? I'm not ready to participate in Jeff Bezos' visit to the outer edge of the atmosphere. I just want to have a place on this planet. And, you know, I think we have heard a lot about making all our cars electric, but this is not very futuristic. So, where are we in transportation innovation?

Weber: You know, historically, when we think about the future of transportation, we tend to think of things in the air instead of things slightly above the ground or even underground. And, you know, we tend to refer to the "Jasons".

Weber: Now, when we think of transportation and the future, we tend to refer to the "Jasons" because there was a flying car scene in the beginning, right?

Weber: And, you know-even if you haven't watched an episode of "The Jasons", if someone says the Jasons' car, everyone will immediately understand what you mean.

But the interesting part is here. In 1917, a man named Glenn Curtiss applied for a patent for an automatic aircraft (ph), a car with some wings. So it jumped in the air several times, but never really, really flew. But every ten years since then, multiple flying car patents and actual flying cars have been designed.

Weber: So the question is, why do we fall into such a vicious circle: the future of transportation is something we already have, but it happens to be unresolved and can't really solve any problems?

ZOMORODI: I-just to get back to the Hyperloop. -Not only the plan has been made, but I am very interested in hearing the news-they are now testing it, just like real humans, including Josh Giger himself. It first carried real passengers in November 2020, and this is what he described as what happened.

GIEGEL: We created a test track in the desert outside of Las Vegas. We have performed more than 500 operations on the system and performed countless other tests on our subsystems. So by October 2020, we have run hundreds of tests. We had an independent safety auditor who gave us the green light, but it was still nerve-wracking. On November 8, 2020, we made our first attempt.

So at our test site, my colleague Sara and I climbed into the tank-shaped vehicle suspended by magnetic levitation in a near vacuum environment, and the countdown began. In these 15 seconds, we showed the world that what was considered absurd more than a hundred years ago is actually possible. This is the beginning of a systematic change in the way we travel.

ZOMORODI: So, Amy, you have already watched the video. It's interesting to look at, because this is Josh and his colleagues, for example, they are speeding by 700 miles per hour, and their cheeks are like flapping in the wind. They look like they are riding a roller coaster. Is this the beginning of a systematic change in the way we travel? I'm not sure I want to travel like that.

Weber: (Laughter) Listen, I hope so. I hope this is the beginning of a systemic change. Why can't we be open to future alternatives? The real future of Hyperloop does not have to be that people’s cheeks flap in the wind, look uncomfortable, and move at absolutely terrifying speeds. Is this the beginning? The first flying airplane, the first automobile, the earliest Sumerians invented a way of walking around on a cart with a horse thousands of years ago-you know, these are technologies-they are changing Development over a long period of time. So, on the one hand, I welcome our Hyperloop future, but we need some time to realize it.

ZOMORODI: One minute later, we will learn more about the future with Amy Webb, including researching a new type of bra that can change women's health care. I’m Manoush Zomorodi and you are listening to NPR’s TED Radio Hour. Stay with us.

This is NPR’s TED Radio Hour. This is Manush Zomoroddi. In today's show, a glimpse of the future. We are discussing the next step in science and technology with futurist Amy Webb, including some fascinating and unusual inventions from TED speakers. Amy believes that one of the most innovative categories is health and wellness.

WEBB: We are researching all kinds of things, from devices that connect to our personal data-such as smart watches like Fitbit or Apple Watch-to the impact of upcoming wearable devices-smart glasses.

WEBB: You can buy a ring with a digital assistant, a speaker and a built-in microphone, and wear it on your finger to let you know if you are getting enough oxygen. The wristband can detect your mood, stress and exercise. Habits. You can wear some smart yoga pants, it will show you whether you are doing the posture correctly. Therefore, all these different devices are collecting our data to help us better understand ourselves, and in some cases, connect your body directly to your doctor for remote patient monitoring.

ZOMORODI: I mean, some of them sound really cool. Our example in this health and wellness category is again old technology updated for the digital age, technology specifically for women. In 2021, engineer and entrepreneur Alicia Chong Rodriguez (Alicia Chong Rodriguez) described her invention, a smart bra that can improve heart health. She first explained that due to the research method, women currently have a big problem in health care.

Alicia Jong Rodriguez: Heart disease and stroke are the main causes of death and disability worldwide. For women, it is not only more difficult to identify, diagnose and treat. But after a heart attack or stroke, women also face a higher mortality rate. Approximately 44 million women in the United States suffer from heart disease, and the incidence of women under 65 is on the rise. what happens?

The answer lies in the intersection of the two fields-data and medical equipment. When I was doing cardiovascular research at MIT, I had access to large data sets. It is eye-opening to realize that women are one of the largest underrepresented subgroups. In fact, before the NIH mandatory inclusion in 1993, women were basically excluded from cardiovascular clinical trials. This is why the existing technologies and therapies are often inadequate-because most of them are designed mainly using data from male animals and men. Because artificial intelligence helps promote digital health, algorithms that primarily use male data and prejudice training may actually make the problem permanent.

ZOMORODI: Amy, listen to Alicia explain the huge gap in women's health data, simply because their data has not been collected-and the data sounds very old. I mean, I don’t think I should be surprised, but I do. What is your reaction?

Weber: Well, I am not surprised. This TED talk really resonated with me because I often ride long-distance bikes on weekends. And, you know, you can buy a heart rate monitor to track your heart rate and all the metrics you want to track. These displays are best placed on your chest, basically, very close to your heart.

For women who wear sports bras, you know this is impractical. The way sports bras are designed, the way these breast monitors are designed—they are just—they don’t work well together. They are uncomfortable. They walked around. You know, these devices are clearly designed by men for men. So this is a very small example, as a woman, I was excluded. I am a person who really wants and knows how to mine and improve my own data. There is a gap in biometric data.

ZOMORODI: And it’s not just women, right? I mean, I heard that dermatologists say that a lot of data collected is only for white skin and not dark skin. Therefore, new therapies are biased in some respects, because not only do they not know how they work; they do not know whether they are suitable for different types of skin.

Weber: Exactly. The trick here is that when we ask artificial intelligence AI systems to play a greater role in pattern recognition, precision medicine, and rapid drug discovery, unfortunately, in some cases, we are making life and death based on very narrow data sets. Decide. This is something everyone should care about.

ZOMORODI: So let's go back to Alicia. Her solution to one of the problems was to collect the correct data using what she called a smart bra. This is how it works.

CHONG RODRIGUEZ: Our idea is to turn everyday bras into real saviors. This is our enhanced clothing platform. It enables women to continuously and remotely obtain physiological data. By wearing this bra, a woman can view insights and patterns, and automatically record logs in her phone, providing her with an easy way to track symptoms and collect life-saving data to share with doctors for early detection and treatment. Manage in a targeted manner. It can even track the safety and effectiveness of certain therapies.

We have built medical-grade textile sensors that can adapt to multiple bra styles and sizes to provide continuous, reliable and repeatable data around her torso and heart. We can track heart rate, breathing, temperature, posture and movement. By applying algorithms, we can use these data to decode symptoms, clarify the triggers of arrhythmia, and generate personalized digital biomarkers.

ZOMORODI: Amy, what do you think? What do you think of her promise that this is a simple way to collect large amounts of data on an individual and collective level-right? -If enough women wear these bras, then we can start creating new data sets and really understand what is happening to women and their cardiovascular health?

Weber: Well, obviously, if you have a better source of data, and you can use the data, then you will get better results on the other hand. This is the beginning of a different path. I think this is important because, you know, we are entering an era where algorithms are making more and more decisions for us, and in fact, every day is optimizing our health for us.

We want to make sure that we optimize for everyone, which means we need a larger data pool. We need more opportunities for people to contribute data. The important thing is that we need trust. Because if there is no trust and confidence in the systems that collect, store, and protect these data, then we will create more problems in the future.

Zomorodi: Yes. I mean, it has to do with me. It's like, well, you are collecting very private data here. What are you going to do? Who is responsible? All these things. But on the other hand, if you tell me that by wearing this, I am contributing to a set of anonymous information that may get more funds for research on how to treat cardiovascular problems in women, which is interesting to me. I am very excited about this.

Weber: Yes. But again, it boils down to trust. I can give it to you...

WEBB: ...a simple example of what happens when you misplace or abuse trust. So have...

Weber: ...a tribe that has lived in what is now Arizona for centuries, the Havasu faction. Over time, this tribe developed some diabetes problems, so they allowed Arizona State University researchers to conduct a study in 1990. The idea is to collect health data, learn and ultimately help the tribe eradicate diabetes.

But then, without the tribe’s knowledge, the researchers changed the scope of their project to include more data; genetic markers of alcoholism, genetic markers of different diseases such as schizophrenia. Researchers continue to publish numerous papers in academic journals, highlighting these results. These articles led to news reports. The news reports gave the tribe a bad reaction.

They were totally understandably shocked and humiliated, which led to the Navajo Nation, which is the second — or, I guess, the second largest group of indigenous people in the United States, banning all genetic sequencing, all analysis; basically, All relevant research on its members. This makes sense, right? Because no one wants to be exploited in this way.

But this leads to another problem, that is, the American genetic database does not really include indigenous people. And, you know, I can tell you similar stories about the black population in America, you know, about the various populations in the United States. And all this can be traced back to trust. So I think it’s a good idea for us to have more and better data, but we must also do this in a traceable and accountable way. We must be good custodians of people’s personal data.

Zomorodi: Yes. We need to remember when we-remember why some people are hesitant about vaccines. As far as I know, Alicia hopes to bring her smart bra to the market, in fact, soon. What other personal health devices do you think will appear soon?

Weber: Well, I have to tell you, what I look forward to most is the toilet.

Weber: So this is, like, a weird turn we are going to take, but...

Weber: ...do it. So, just like in the 2010s, Stanford University did some research on the equipment in your home. So this is a smart toilet, which is equipped with litmus test strips and some pressure sensors. The idea is to be able to monitor patients in living facilities more effectively, in their homes.

Now, there are actually a lot of very valuable data for you to retrieve, for example, stay, right?

Weber: So just by going to the bathroom, we can learn a lot about you, such as whether you have prostate inflammation or whether your blood sugar level is high, or whether you know whether there is some kind of inflammation in your intestines. These data tell about your gut health and overall health.

The problem is that we often don't collect this data unless something goes wrong, when we show up in the doctor's office. Wouldn’t it be great if we could collect this data every day? I mean, can you imagine knowing what your intestinal flora baseline is, do you know what your normal body temperature is?

Weber: Yes. This will be very useful and actionable information. Then, interestingly, earlier this year, Toto, a Japanese company known for making toilets, launched its own healthy toilet. This is a toilet equipped with sensors and collection tools. You know, basically with all types of technology, you really don't want to recognize you in that particular place. Do you understand what I mean?

ZOMORODI: So not only will it be like, wow, I should eat more sauerkraut, but it might-like, I was thinking that at the end-when the pandemic started and people started-the sewer system collected some and started to be able to tell from the feces The place where the coronavirus is about to break out. Is this another way that may be collective?

Weber: Yes, completely. I mean, you can focus-there are two things at the beginning of the outbreak. You know, many men, men of a certain age, will infect many prostates, and prostate infections reflect the symptoms of COVID-19 in some ways. You will be sore all over. You have a fever. You feel a little pain, right? I think at the beginning of the crisis, there may be many men at the beginning of prostate infection, worried that they are infected with COVID, and may not be able to easily enter the doctor's office for treatment and a test.

So smart toilets will alleviate some of the challenges-right? -Because you will know, oh, I have a prostate infection. My toilet will be connected to my local pharmacy and taken through Cipro’s prescription, right? That's it. Yes, if we can anonymize and extract this data in a way that protects privacy, then yes, we may already be able to track the pockets of the outbreak. In the future, we will be able to track areas that are undernourished or areas where diabetes has started to surge, and you will be able to do a lot at the micro-community level.

Zomoroddi: Okay. I want to change gears now, and I want to talk about some things in areas that are largely lacking in technological innovation. The next speaker will give a speech in 2021. Her name is Karoli Hindriks. She is an entrepreneur, and her speech is titled "Why Passports Need to be Upgraded". Karoli believes that for people living in the global economy, they are cumbersome, bureaucratic, and essentially a logistical nightmare. And, you know, this is not a new problem she thinks. When she grew up in Estonia under Soviet occupation, she began to think about the problems of passports.

KAROLI HINDRIKS: Living in that degree of darkness makes me wonder why the borders and flows between countries are constructed in this way? The World Economic Forum believes that human capital is the driving force of economic growth. So why are the barriers to global liquidity so high? Why is this process so time-consuming, so scary and ridiculous, so terrible? I know this is terrible, because I was detained at the San Francisco airport for two hours just to get on this stage. In 2020, the World Economic Forum reported that the top three countries for highly educated immigrants are India, China, and the Philippines. According to the 2021 Henry Passport Index, these three countries rank 110 in the world’s least travel-friendly passports. 85th, 70th and 77th in The problem starts with what we call passports.

ZOMORODI: Okay, so Karoli wants to know, why? If we need liquidity to transport human and capital to where it is needed, then what is the point of doing so? Our current way of tracking people is mainly based on nationality, not the idea of ​​people as an international labor force. I think she is talking about labor.

Weber: Yes, I mean, if you stop and think about what a passport is—right? -This is just a number associated with the database. I think it represents us to some extent, but it does not do more. Most of us are now global. You know, we work in different places. We walked around to different places. Sometimes the value we put on a person and their ability to move around is greatly hindered by where the passport comes from. So she definitely makes sense.

ZOMORODI: She cited another example of a highly skilled expert from Yemen. She is a divorced single mother of two children who works for a Malaysian technology company. The company wants to transfer her to their European office. But because she has a Yemeni passport, she has to travel thousands of miles many times, and different embassies obtain visas for her and her children-I mean, obviously it’s not good for her family, it’s not good for the company, it’s not good for the environment . So, if we don’t like it, why does it continue to work this way?

Weber: Well, we tend to keep moving-right? -We don't like to make huge changes. During the First World War, just after Henry Ford introduced affordable cars, passports were introduced for the first time as a required travel document worldwide. Today, our passports are still almost the same as they were a century ago. I think there is a flaw in the way the passport system is constructed. The modern passport system was designed by a Western-centric organization.

Weber: It has become an object of people in Western countries, but it has become a burden for others.

ZOMORODI: When we came back, Karoli wanted to solve the passport problem and whether futurist Amy Webb thought it would work. In today's show, a glimpse of the future. I’m Manoush Zomorodi and you are listening to NPR’s TED Radio Hour. We will be back soon.

This is NPR’s TED Radio Hour. This is Manush Zomorodi. In today's show, a glimpse of the future. We are spending an hour with futurist Amy Webb, discussing innovations that could completely change the way we live, interact, and travel.

Amy, we are just talking about how outdated paper passports are in the global economy. We listened to a letter from entrepreneur Karoli Hindriks, who believes that a digital passport is the answer. Based on experience, she grew up in Estonia, a country where all citizens’ information is online.

Weber: Yes. It is hard to overstate the giant leap that Estonia has made in terms of digitization. You know, from creating an electronic passport and electronic registration system, to even creating a system like the National Genetic Data Registration System to make it easier to experiment in a fully ethical way, you know that Estonia is one step ahead of most countries. The rest of the world is digitizing and creating decentralized systems that are fair and just and serve their citizens.

Now, to be fair, Estonia is also a very small country, very—you know, for example, there are millions of people in north-central Europe. So, you know, how this might expand in Western Europe or places like the United States is a bit complicated. But the story of Estonia and the story she tells is a fascinating example of an alternative future.

HINDRIKS: One of the keys to Estonia's success in digitalization is to focus on establishing a digital identity for everyone, so that public and private databases can be connected and coordinated. Except for marriage or divorce, Estonia will do everything online. Digitization saves Estonia a stack of paper as high as the Eiffel Tower every month. Most importantly, digital signature alone allows Estonia to save 2% of its GDP every year. This wastes a lot of money because the public sector has not adapted to existing technologies.

We can solve this problem by creating a secure and universal digital identity, where all users need to do is upload their data and documents (such as passports, marriage certificates, and education certificates) into our smart system, and then upload these The data is converted into relevant government forms of some different countries that can be matched. Its beauty is a one-time rule. The user needs to add this data once because it will be stored for future use.

ZOMORODI: So the universal identity she said means that all our important information will exist online in a single system that is not controlled by any country, and eliminate the current bureaucracy of traveling and working in other countries. However, Amy and Karoli took a cursory look at the technology needed to make this possible. She called it an intelligent system. what is that?

Weber: Yes. So she is talking about-please stay with me when I say-blockchain.

ZOMORODI: Oh, that word, right?

Weber: I know. I know. It's scary, right? But the important thing is here. What we are talking about is similar to a huge public spreadsheet in which anyone can write information. It is certified, accurate, and anonymous. So you don't know whose thing is what. But it also cannot be erased or modified. This is why this is important-because she is talking about forums. But it's not just about form. You know, most people don't know how many passwords and files. Manoush, when I got married, I legally changed my last name to my husband's last name.

Weber: And I can’t start—for example, some of the ladies listening here know the apocalyptic horror before and after your name change. It's like I had to carry my marriage certificate with me for a year, because, you know, trying to get on the plane, you know, waiting for this, for example, a series of correct documents to arrive. That's too bad. Am I still me? I just adopted a different last name.

So what she is talking about here is to make this easier so that your credentials are set-they are stored in one place and they cannot be changed. But they can be authenticated and used by a trusted third party. We already have such a section today in the form of a credit card or bank account. She is talking about bigger things here. It is much more comprehensive. It is part of the blockchain...

WEBB: ...like a smart contract.

ZOMORODI: I mean, there are still many things to be solved in the blockchain, such as who manages it and who verifies it. But the situation I have been thinking about is my vaccine card, because now I have a small note from Walgreens that says I have been vaccinated. In New York, there is an app on our mobile phone that can display our vaccination status, but this only applies to New York City. I went to California and they were cool. May I look at your paper?

ZOMORODI: Anyone can forge a small piece of paper. This-in a global pandemic, don't we need a global way to track vaccination?

WEBB: So something like centralized digital ID solves many of these problems. I will tell you that because of the work we do, you know, there are many governments that are establishing a single digital identity. I think the challenge in the future is that we will have competing systems, which I think will bring some new problems.

ZOMORODI: So we have to finish it here. So far, most of the innovations we have discussed are in test or prototype form. They are not necessarily available to ordinary people. But the last thing we want to talk about-when I say this, someone will groan...

ZOMORODI: ...someone else said, wait, what? It's NFT. This represents an irreplaceable token. This is a digital way of buying short-lived things such as artworks. Any of us can use them. Kayvon Tehranian is one of the believers in this new technology. He is a technologist and entrepreneur. His speech is titled "How NFT Builds the Internet of the Future".

KAYVON TEHRANIAN: We have uploaded trillions of photos and videos to the Internet for free, and even cat memes. What business model allows this information to be free? advertise. Advertising is the default business model of the Internet, not because it is what we want, but because it is the reason for paying bills. Currently, the few large companies that operate the most effective advertising networks control most of the value of the Internet today, not the people who create content. On the Internet today, we will not get paid for the work we do with our heart. More importantly, the content we upload to these services is trapped there.

These services not only make money from our content, but they also control it-up to NFT. NFT is a technological breakthrough. They provide us with an opportunity to get rid of that broken system. It is a certificate of ownership registered on the blockchain for everyone to view. This is not much different from the contract you get when you buy a house in the real world. However, NFT represents the ownership of the Internet files, not the house.

Zomoroddi: Okay. Then we say it again. NFT stands for irreplaceable tokens. Kayvon described it as a housing deed. But, I mean, is it really like a house deed? Amy, help me. What is the correct analogy here? I think we need to use the term blockchain again.

Weber: Okay. So irreplaceable basically means that no matter what it is, it is unique. You can't make another one, can you? So a dollar bill is fungible, because if you have a dollar bill, you can exchange it for another dollar bill and get the same value, unless there is an extenuating situation, for example, you have a very rare dollar bill Or something else. Row. This is where this actually becomes practical. Therefore, if you buy an over-expensive collectible, such as an exquisite handbag, it will be accompanied by a certificate of authenticity. However, there are some problems with things that look real but are not real. Or there is a habit of losing paper certificates.

So, suppose you get a physical beautiful handbag. But in addition to that, you will also get an irreplaceable token, which is a registration for yourself to own this particular package, right? Now, people can take a snapshot of that handbag. They can sell these handbag pictures to others. It does not exclude others from sharing it. But in law, you own the objects and rights or certificates. Now, suppose you buy a digital collectible, such as a super rare baseball card or something that happens to be digital and physical. This is an asset. If others want to buy from you, the idle funds you can hold may accumulate value over time.

ZOMORODI: I think it will add value. Like, suppose I post on my Instagram or other social media, I think, look at this. This stuff is pretty cool. Many people like it, wow, that digital baseball card is really beautiful. A lot of likes, a lot of likes, a lot of likes. So now if someone wants to buy it from me, the price may increase.

Weber: Yes. Volatility is part of this story. That's because now this is a very emotionally driven field. People are investing money in NFT. They invest money in all different types of new digital assets. And the value of these things is fluctuating violently.

Tehran: Let us give an example, Nyan Cat, a popular cat meme that can be recognized at a glance. Since it was uploaded to the Internet ten years ago, it has accumulated hundreds of millions of page views. Because of this viral spread, when it was auctioned as an NFT, it was sold for 300 eth-or the equivalent of more than $600,000. And now the people who own this NFT, they haven't stopped anyone from liking, reposting or remixing Nyan Cat. Nyan Cat can surf the Internet for free as usual. The difference now is that as the popularity of Nyan Cat continues to grow, the value of NFT is also growing.

ZOMORODI: So the example we heard was about Nyan Cat. I mean, who cares, Amy?

Zomorodi: I'm sorry. But what is the point of this? Why is NFT important?

Weber: Well, I don't care either. But here-at least about cats.

WEBB: But we need to update our system, you know, whether it's how artists get paid based on the scale of their work, or how we shop and how we sell things. As you know, many of our current systems were created before the advent of the Internet. Before that, you could create an unlimited number of copies with the click of a button. If you are an artist and your work is suddenly shared in infinite ways, you know, that work loses its value. So what we are talking about here is something called provenance.

Weber: This is the source that can prove what it might be—whether it’s a TED talk or a digital copy of a beautiful handbag—and make sure that those who deserve compensation get fair compensation, and that with any related records, you know, it also Very clear and usable, which can bring better transparency to the systems we have.

Tehran: Thanks to the NFT, Nyan Cat creator Chris Torres received direct compensation for his creation. But more importantly, he will continue to receive compensation every time he resells the NFT. This is because the royalty system is integrated into the smart contract that manages the NFT.

NFT is software. They can be programmed. For complex things like royalties, which require a lot of legal and manual labor in our simulation world, we can now express them with a few simple lines of code. This represents a breakthrough innovation in any industry that relies on royalty payments, such as publishing or music. Just as blogs and MP3 have restructured these industries in the past few decades, NFT will catalyze their next development. The Internet has eliminated our geographic boundaries. NFT eliminates economic boundaries.

ZOMORODI: Okay, so these are some major promises, especially for technologies that many people think are just a fashion, maybe even a scam, a way to get rich. I mean, Amy, there are a lot of frauds in cryptocurrency and blockchain projects. But there are also many believers. This is how innovation works-will you see the dark side of early adopters?

Weber: Again, you know, all of this is the beginning of a transformation. The trick here is to figure out what is popular and what is popular, right? As a futurist, I use some rules to solve this problem, which represents a long-term movement in the future. Do you know whether NFT meets the basic needs of mankind? Is it catalyzed by new technology? should be. Is it timely and will last a long time? NFT itself—probably not. But what it represents-and the blockchain, may continue to exist. Finally, will this evolve as it emerges? Because important long-term trends are often not static.

So, you know, we consider NFT and art and collectibles. That's very fashionable. The real trend is from our current system, from our current way of verifying personnel and our way of signing contracts, to a more modern system to represent the world today. This means new types of permissions, new types of contracts, new types of authentication. This may also mean that we are studying a whole host of new types of cybercrime, right? Because every time you acquire a useful technology, people will discover its harmful uses.

Zomoroddi: Okay. So I think this brings me to my last question. A large part of the work you described earlier is to advise the government and companies on the state of innovation. But, Amy, remind us—for example, why should we care about all these things? Why should we pay attention? Because sometimes it does feel that these topics-NFT, blockchain, smart technology-they are a bit far away from our daily lives. Some of them will not necessarily be ready in the next few years, but I think this is really exciting. So I'm just a little curious about your thoughts.

Weber: The problem is that these are tricky subjects, and sometimes they really feel inaccessible. I know we all have-I am one-you know, I think you and I are both very busy parents. At the end of the working day, the last thing I want to do is to deal with homework, cooking and everything else, like-now should I have any brainpower to talk about blockchain? Are you crazy?

Weber: That's not what I want to do now. I want to curl up, like-I want to read a book or watch "Real Housewives".

WEBB: Seriously, it's like—you know. But we cannot close our eyes and sleep in the great awakening that is happening around us, because we have the basic technologies online that will reshape the faces of others. So I fully understand, but I also care about our future. We are all closely related to it.

ZOMORODI: That's Amy Weber. She is the founder and CEO of Today's Future Institute. Her new book is titled "The Genesis Machine: Our Exploration of Rewriting Life in the Era of Synthetic Biology." You can see her TED talks and all the talks we discussed on TED.com.

Thank you very much for listening to our show today-looking to the future. To view hundreds of TED talks, you can also view the TED app.

This episode was produced by Diba Mohtasham and Harrison Vijay Tsui. Edited by Sanaz Meshkinpour. Our production staff at NPR also include Jeff Rogers, James Delahoussaye, Rachel Faulkner, Katie Monteleone, Matthew Cloutier and Fiona Geiran. Our audio engineer is Brian Jarboe. Our intern is Katherine Sypher. Our theme music is composed by Ramtin Arablouei. Our partners at TED are Chris Anderson, Colin Helms, Anna Phelan and Michelle Quint. I’m Manoush Zomorodi, and you’ve been listening to NPR’s TED Radio Hour.

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